The People Bulletin

The latest labour statistics suggest that there may be some improvement in the recruitment market.  The unemployment rate for August to October 2009 at 7.9% was the smallest since spring 2008 (unchanged on the quarter) and the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance has fallen on the month with a slight increase in the number of vacancies. 

However, the number of unemployed people increased by 21,000 over the quarter to reach 2.49m the highest figure since the three months to March 1995. But one must not lose sight of the fact this is the smallest quarterly increase in the number of unemployed people since March to May 2008.   

The Guardian has a very useful interactive graph which puts the labour market fluctuations into the context of social and political developments at the time – going back to 1984.  It can be viewed here [link to http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/interactive/2009/jun/22/unemployment-and-employment-statistics-recession 

The CIPD, in its Outlook 2010 – a radar check for HR [link to http://www.cipd.co.uk/subjects/hrpract/general/overofsurvs.htm?IsSrchRes=1]

forecasts 2010 as ‘a better year for jobs as the economy recovers from recession, but still a very difficult one with unemployment continuing to rise until at least the summer and below-inflation pay increases for most people at work. Dr John Philpott, the CIPD’s economic adviser, said it was a ‘remarkable outcome’ that unemployment had not taken off further, given the scale of the downturn, observing that the labour market is a lot more flexible than it use to be.  He pointed out that it could also rise higher if the  the UK economy failed to recover as expected, or the government imposed deeper spending cuts.

Most economists expect the UK to exit recession in the early part of 2010, with the government predicting 1.25% growth over the year. 

www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=12